Im writing the last analysis for today, but with 3 picks for the same match.
It is crazy to see such lines when deGrom and DeSclafani are pitching.
Lets start with deGrom, the winner of the Cy Young the past season that is struggling a bit this year. He signed his contract extension and we all know how that works ...
This year he has a negative 2-3 record with a 4.85 ERA. He faced the Nationals in the first match, then the Marlins, in both matches posted an amazing performance but since then ... Against Minnesota 6 runs allowed in just 4 innings, against Atlanta 3 runs allowed in just 5 innings and against Milwaukee 5 runs allowed in just 4 innings. 5 home runs allowed in that span. Something is going on with deGrom, thats for sure.
For the Reds, DeSclafani will be on the mound, a pitcher that finished the past season with a 4.93 ERA and a negative record. This year his ERA dropped to 4.26 but we are just at the beginning of the year. Definitely not a competitive pitcher.
The Mets improved a lot offensively this year. We are not talking anymore about a team that fight in low scoring matchups. Alonso, Cano, Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil. Rosario ... there is firepower in this roster. Cincinnati is a very dangerous team in this aspect when players like Votto or Suarez have a good day, and we cannot forget about their biggest signing of the year, Yasiel Puig.
If we talk about the bullpens ... Mets bullpen has been trashy so far this year, in fact it is the third worst in the league at this point with a shameful 5.38 ERA and pitchers like Familia or Lugo struggling. Yesterday Diaz was rested so it is very likely to see him pitching today 1 inning, but Familia, Gagnon, Gsellman pitched yesterday so less important pitchers could come from the bullpen today. That sounds great to me.
Cincinnati improved the bullpen this year but they have a problem for today after using David Hernandez 3 days in a row, Iglesias and Garret 2 days in a row or pitchers like Lorenzen, Peralta or Stephenson that played at least 3 times in the last 4 days.
The weather will not take part on this match, it is not windy or rainy day in NY.
I like every single over in this match. deGrom is not playing well, DeSclafani is not good at all, and both bullpens are not reliable at all and arrive tired to this match so ... expecting runs in NY.